Why Can’t College Grads Find Jobs? Here Are Some Theories — and Fixes.

Many new college graduates are having an awful time finding jobs, as I wrote in April and in early May. I’ve been trying to understand why, and I think I’m getting closer to more answers.

There’s lots of anecdotal evidence that something is wrong. Please take a listen to a new episode of “The Opinions” podcast I did with John York, a 24-year-old with a master’s degree in math from New York University who grabbed my attention when he wrote me that “it feels like I am screaming into the void with each application I am filling out.” Derek Arthur, the producer of the podcast, interviewed other young graduates, including one who said he had sent out over 500 applications with no luck.

At first blush, stories like York’s seem like outliers, since the unemployment rate is still pretty low — 3.9 percent in April. But a report this week by Elsie Peng, an economist at Goldman Sachs, shows that the anecdotes point to something real.

Digging into Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Peng found a recent decline in the job-finding rate of new entrants to the labor force. Fresh college grads make up a big chunk of that group.

The chart above, which I made from Goldman’s data, shows that the hiring rate for new entrants to the labor force is below its average since mid-2000, even as the hiring rate for experienced workers remains well above its average.